Rubus ulmifolius    Family Rosaceae

Common name(s): Blackberry

Priority management list(s): AWC list; WoNS (declared)

Number of occurrence records: 11233 raw records; 2190 records after filtering

Models fitted: MaxEnt

Last model update: 30 May 2012

Prediction: A -69.02% LOSS in overall climate suitability is predicted for this species between current (baseline) climate and climate in 2050.

Change in components of overall climate suitability:

Climate suitability indexGain or loss
High (0.65 - 1)-0.56
Medium (0.35 - 0.65)-28.36
Low (0 - 0.35)-40.1

Occurrence maps:

Australia & PNG

Worldwide

Model consensus maps:

Click on map to see larger image.

Current climate

2050 climate

Materials and methods

Briefly, the methods used were:

  • Occurrence data was gathered from GBIF and ALA
  • Climate data was provided by WordClim current or baseline climate and future climate for 2050 derived from 14 GCM used in the IPCC AR4
  • Models of climate suitability were fitted using current climate and projected onto the 14 future climates
  • A mean map of predicted climate suitability was made across the 14 projections to give a consensus map

A detailed description of the methods used is provided here.

Exotic plants naturalised in Australia

With such a large and diverse group to model, there are many ways to present the results. I have used the following groupings because they are either well-entrenched in weed science thinking (e.g. Alert list species are "priority" species for control) or they are traditional functional types (e.g. grasses). Note that a species will appear in a number of the groups. Following one of the links below will take you to an index page from which you may access the species accounts for group members.

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The big picture

What do we see when we consolidate SDMs for a large and diverse collection of species? The results so far challenge some pre-conceived notions of what could happen to weeds under climate change. Perhaps the biggest result is that many of the worst weeds of the later part of the 20th Century will most likely not be as great a threat in the 21st Century. There are many naturalised species "waiting in the wings" ready to emerge as the next greatest threat to sustainable food production and biodiversity conservation. Continued...

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